Stocks and War: Historical Performance Guide 2026

You need to understand how stock markets historically perform during times of war and global conflict in 2026 to keep your cool when the headlines get scary. You'll probably want to pull all your money out of the Market when you see geopolitical tensions rising, but history tells a much different story than your gut might suggest. While the initial shock of a conflict often leads to a quick dip, the long-term recovery is usually faster than most people expect.

We've seen the data, the specific assets that tend to hold up, and why staying invested is often the smartest move you can make. Note: This is educational content, not financial advice.

Note: This article is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

1. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)

Last Updated: April 18, 2026

The "Stay the Course" Strategy

If you're looking at how stock markets historically perform during times of war and global conflict, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) is the gold standard for staying invested. It tracks the CRSP US Total Market Index, giving you a piece of nearly every publicly traded company in the United States. Why does this matter during a war? Because history shows that the U.S. economy is incredibly resilient.

During World War II, despite the massive global uncertainty, the S&P 500 actually saw annualized returns of nearly 17%. If you had panicked and sold your shares in 1941, you would have missed out on one of the greatest bull runs in history. VTI offers an incredibly low Expense ratio of just 0.03%, meaning you keep almost all of your returns. Honestly, this is our favorite option for a core portfolio.

In 2026, with the IRA contribution limit sitting at $7,500, putting your money into a broad fund like VTI helps you avoid the trap of trying to pick winners in a volatile environment. You aren't betting on one company; you're betting on the entire American industrial machine. This broad approach works because war often forces innovation and massive government spending, which eventually trickles down to corporate earnings.

You'll see volatility, sure. It happens. But the broad market has a habit of climbing a "wall of worry." If you're putting $500 a month into your brokerage account, VTI is the simple, effective way to ensure you don't get shaken out of the market by a scary news cycle.

The beauty of VTI is its simplicity. You don't have to worry about whether tech is going to outperform energy or if small caps are going to tank. You own it all. During the Vietnam War era, the market faced high inflation and social unrest, yet the broad market still managed to grind higher over the long haul.

By holding VTI, you're essentially saying that you believe the global economy will find a way to function regardless of the conflict. This isn't just blind optimism; it's a strategy backed by over a century of data. The fund is highly liquid, so if you ever do need to access your cash, you can sell shares instantly. But the real secret is the dividend reinvestment.

Even when price action is flat, those quarterly payouts from thousands of companies help grow your share count. For 2026, VTI remains our top pick for anyone who wants to ignore the noise and focus on building wealth over decades rather than days.

2. iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

The Direct Exposure Play

If you want to talk about how stock markets historically perform during times of war and global conflict, you have to look at the companies actually building the hardware